Mubarak is out. Amid the celebrations, we have to ask what comes next.
Every revolution has two sides. The first, and usually the most exciting, is the breakdown. Something happens that starts a rotten order crumbling, bringing the people into the streets. There’s no telling what — a minor bread riot in Russia in 1917, the death of a popular reformer in China in 1989, a young man burning himself to death in Tunisia in 2011. We can’t predict these events — though there may be ways we can “amplify” them.
More important, though, is the other side, the consolidation. Someone has to be ready to take power, to pick up the pieces. If there’s no one else, it will be the forces of the existing order or, more often than not, the military. (Most revolutions fail.)
So who will it be in Egypt and the rest of the Middle East? The great fear, especially outside the country is that it will be al-Ikhwan. (In my last post, I suggested that this fear is overblown.) Mubarak played this for all it was worth. There is an alternative, however — besides the army. (For the moment, the military is calling the shots in Egypt, though they’re promising real democracy — we’ll see.)
The American (corporate) media is allergic to reporting things like this, but a strong labor movement is rising in Egypt — and Tunisia, for that matter. The Federation of Egyptian Trade Unions — not to be confused with the Egyptian Trade Union Federation, which was controlled by the regime — was formed in January and is drawing support from the international labor movement.
That’s where we should be putting our — by “our” I mean the international progressive community — support. We’re going to have to create our own channels of communication and sources of information. The media certainly aren’t going to help. We can start by building on the existing labor movement channels.
Since it is conventional wisdom that the real trigger for unrest in the Middle East is high unemployment and other economic privations, it makes sense to concentrate on the movements dedicated to raising the welfare of the working class. How, exactly, the labor movement should proceed is not yet clear. (I certainly don’t have all the answers — much as I sometimes like to pretend.) But we should start by letting it be known that we are watching to make sure that the representatives of the working class are major participants in whatever comes next.

